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Prediction for CME (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-24T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23915/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T13:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, OSIRIS-REx, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-02-24T23:50:04Z
## Message ID: 20230224-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-02-24T20:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~1441 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 20/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, OSIRIS-REx (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow).  The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2023-02-26T17:38Z, OSIRIS-REx at 2023-02-28T16:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2023-02-27T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-02-26T13:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-9 (strong to extreme).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230224_230100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with an M3.7 flare with ID 2023-02-24T20:03:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-02-24T20:30Z and SEP Predictions from the modeled HESPERIA/REleASE SOHO/EPHIN based forecasts with IDs 2023-02-24T21:53:00-SEP-001 and 2023-02-24T21:53:00-SEP-002 (see notification 20230224-AL-001). 

Analysis of this event is ongoing. Updates may be provided as more imagery becomes available.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 42.88 hour(s)
Difference: 4.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-02-24T23:50Z
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